Although I join the majority in believing in global warming and the resulting sea level rise, I also believe in asking questions when a very consequential plan is based on a model that differs greatly from other models developed by WHOI and from actual recorded sea level rise measurements by NOAA.
The newly published Coastal Resilience Plan discusses taking actions costing tens of millions of dollars, abandoning town assets and ceasing maintenance and services to affected areas, all based on a very questionable sea level rise model.
According to the plan’s model, sea levels will rise by approximately 3⁄4 inch each year through 2070. This model predicts a sea level rise 660 percent greater than the WHOI model and actual measurements.
A WHOI study in 2019 predicts a rise of 1/8 inch to ¼ inch per year through 2050.
WHOI measured an actual rise of just less than 1/8 inch in 2019 in Woods Hole.
And NOAA measurements of actual sea level rise from 1930 to present averages 2.92 millimeters, or less than 1/8 inch per year in Woods Hole.
Based on the huge discrepancies between the models shown above and actual recorded sea level rise, I call on all Falmouth residents and board members to demand the following prior to the implementation of any of the Coastal Resiliency Plan recommendations:
1. A complete re-evaluation of the sea level rise model used
2. Due to the fact that all models are just predictions, the CRP should include an ongoing predictive model to actual comparison and plan adjustment methodology.
John T. Mullen